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Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022
The eye of Darby has become more distinct since the last advisory,
suggesting that a little more intensification has occurred, In
response, the intensity estimates from various subjective and
objective satellite techniques have nudged upward and are currently
in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is set at a possibly
conservative 95 kt.
While Darby is currently in an environment of light shear and
decent moisture, the center is over sea surface temperatures of
25-26C. This is expected to cause a slow weakening during the next
24 h. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter
moderate to strong westerly shear and move into a very dry air mass,
and this combination is likely to cause rapid weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS model indicates that the associated
convection should dissipate around the 48 h point, with Darby
becoming a post-tropical low by 60-72 h. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward through the first 24 h, then shows a
somewhat faster weakening than the previous forecast. The global
models are in good agreement that the remnants of Darby will weaken
to a trough by 96 h, so the forecast continues to call for
dissipation by that time.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Darby should
continue to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for the
next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. There are
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast track, which
lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 136.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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