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Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022
Darby has changed little in structure tonight. Microwave imagery
from SSMIS at 0147 UTC revealed a small inner core with a primary
band to the south of the center. The storm continues to generate a
well-defined upper-level outflow and some bursts of convection with
-80 degrees C or colder cloud top temperatures near the center on
geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity remains at 40
kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB.
Convective organization appears to have stalled in the past few
hours, possibly due to some drier mid-level humidities, and as a
result there has been no apparent change in intensity. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening in the next couple days and model guidance indicates
Darby will intensify, possibly into a hurricane. The system is
predicted be over cooler ocean surface temperatures and entering a
drier environment within 72 hours which should lead to weakening for
the remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC intensity
prediction is above most of model guidance for the first couple of
days and then is blended into the consensus for the rest of
forecast.
The tropical storm is moving westward at 13 kt and it is being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. This motion is expected
to continue at a slightly slower forward speed for the next couple
of days. In 3-4 days, Darby should reach a weakness in the ridge
and turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The official NHC track
forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, and it remains close
to the TVCE and HCCA model consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.3N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.6N 125.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 14.9N 128.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 130.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.1N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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