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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Deep convection associated with Bonnie has decreased over the past
several hours, with only a small area of convection remaining in
the northeastern quadrant. The various satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-55 kt range, and based on these and the
convective trends the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt.
Bonnie should continue to weaken as it moves over cool sea surface
temperatures and as it ingests a drier air mass. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h, and the global
models are in good agreement that the system will weaken to a
trough by 60 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.
The initial motion is now 280/17 kt. Bonnie or its remnants should
move quickly westward in the low-level trade winds until the
system dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the
tightly-clustered track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 19.3N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 19.6N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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