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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022
 
Bonnie continues to produce an area of deep convection near the 
center, but stable air is entraining into the circulation and some 
dry slots have become evident during the past couple of hours.  The 
Dvorak intensity estimates from CIMSS at the University of 
Wisconsin, SAB, and TAFB range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that 
data, the initial intensity is nudged down to 50 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Bonnie is currently over cool 24C waters and it is headed for even
cooler waters during the next day or so.  These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with a stable air mass should cause additional
weakening, and Bonnie will likely become a post-tropical cyclone by
late Saturday.  The post-tropical system should open into a trough
late in the weekend or early next week when it moves into a region
of moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
 
The tropical storm is moving relatively quickly west-northwestward 
at 17 kt.  A turn to the west within the low-level flow is expected 
on Saturday, and that motion should continue until Bonnie 
dissipates.  The models are in good agreement, and this forecast 
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 19.1N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 19.4N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  10/1200Z 19.7N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 19.7N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1200Z 19.6N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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