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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022
Bonnie's center remains embedded beneath a small Central Dense
Overcast which hasn't really shrunk any further in size during the
day. That said, satellite intensity estimates have continued to
decrease, and the estimated initial intensity of 55 kt is close to
the Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a 1519 UTC SATCON estimate. A
recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds around 50 kt, which also
supports an intensity of 55 kt given the instrument's low resolution
and Bonnie's small size. Sea surface temperatures below the storm
are now 24 to 25 degrees Celsius and will continue to get colder
over the next day or two while the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Therefore, Bonnie's deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours,
which is when it's shown becoming post-tropical in the forecast.
Winds will continue to gradually decrease, and the system is
expected to dissipate in 3 days, if not sooner.
The current motion is north of due west, or 280/16 kt. Low- to
mid-level ridging is expected to keep Bonnie on a quick westward
track at 15 to 20 kt during the next couple of days until
dissipation. The NHC track forecast was nudged southward after 24
hours to fall closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but that
update is fairly negligible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 18.6N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW