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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022
Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a
small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4
0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg
C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier,
stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore,
further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection,
and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less.
As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast,
Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days.
The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to
mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a
continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed
early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with
the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable
changes were made from the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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