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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning
with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud
tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has
seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as
a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day
or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening.
Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours,
but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time.
Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it
is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The
post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4
(Monday).
The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than
normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward
and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night.
The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward
track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new
NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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