ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022
The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much
this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a
well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented
over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an
intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later
today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next
24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid
weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce
deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for
Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin
down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate
into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3.
Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm
westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to
accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the
stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance
envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN