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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core
structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band
features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The
surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few
hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial
intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported
by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun
to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone,
and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours.
Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in
12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement.
Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and
ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler
oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable
thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these
negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly
weaken through the remainder of the period and the official
forecast follows suit.
Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone
should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the
entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in
the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California
peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed.
The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond
day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid.
Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH