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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022
Satellite imagery indicates that Bonnie continues to gradually
strengthen this evening. A 0112 UTC SSMIS microwave pass reveals a
compact inner core with an eye less than 10 nm. Upper-level outflow
and convective banding appears to be fairly well-defined over the
western and southern quadrants of the storm. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 90 kt in favor of the higher estimate, based
on increasingly cold cloud tops near the core.
Bonnie is expected to be in a relatively conducive environment for
the next day or so. Based on current satellite trends, some
additional strengthening seems likely. However, most of the
intensity guidance does not show significant intensification beyond
24 hours, possibly due to the moderate vertical shear in the
near-storm environment. By Wednesday, the wind shear is expected to
decrease, but lower mid-level relative humidities and cooling sea
surface temperatures should become a limiting factor. Therefore,
the official forecast shows some additional short-term strengthening
followed by gradual weakening. This forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.
The storm has jogged a little to the north in the past few hours,
but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 14 kt.
Bonnie is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north and
north-northeast which is expected to build westward and keep the
system on a general west-northward trajectory. The NHC track
prediction is shifted slightly north of the previous one on account
of the shorter-term northward shift, and is very near the consensus
model forecast.
Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 14.5N 101.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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