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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Bonnie is less organized than last 
night. The hurricane is still contending with some deep-layer 
northeasterly shear, as evidenced by the sharp cloud edge noted on 
the upshear side of its circulation. Additionally, the ragged eye 
previously seen in infrared imagery degraded overnight, and the 
inner core convection has been reduced to a curved convective band 
that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of the center. 
There are no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to 
better assess changes in Bonnie's structure this morning. The latest 
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 53 to 77 kt, 
and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 70 kt.
 
Despite the presence of 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear over Bonnie, 
the hurricane still has a window to strengthen during the next 
couple of days. Bonnie is expected to remain within a moist 
mid-level environment over very warm SSTs through Wednesday, and the 
majority of the intensity guidance still supports some strengthening 
within these favorable environmental conditions. However, rapid 
intensification appears somewhat less likely based on decreasing 
values in the latest SHIPS RI and DTOPS indices. The official NHC 
intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but 
still lies on the high end of the guidance during the first 48 h, 
closest to the DSHP and LGEM aids. Thereafter, the intensity is 
forecast to level off and eventually weaken as the system moves into 
a drier environment over cooler SSTs. The latter half of the NHC 
forecast trends closer to the multi-model consensus.
 
The initial motion of Bonnie is estimated to be west-northwestward, 
or 285/16 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning. 
Bonnie is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward 
for the next couple of days, roughly parallel to but well offshore 
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track 
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it remains 
close to the TVCE consensus aid. This forecast track keeps 
tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast 
of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still 
expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and 
Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 13.6N  97.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.3N  99.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.8N 104.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.2N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 16.4N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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