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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
 
Bonnie's cloud pattern continues to become better organized on both
geostationary and microwave imagery.  Cold cloud tops are beginning
to surround a ragged eye on infrared images and there is nearly a
closed ring evident from passive microwave data, indicating that
the inner core continues to become more defined.   Using a blend
of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is
increased to 70 kt for this advisory.
 
The hurricane has strong upper-level outflow over its western
semicircle and limited outflow to the east, due to moderate
easterly shear.  However, this shear is not likely to offset the
otherwise conducive environmental factors of warm ocean waters and a
moist atmosphere for the next couple of days.  The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification, RI, Index shows a little more than a 30 percent
chance of RI during the next day or so.  The official intensity
forecast shows more strengthening than in the previous advisories
and is a blend of the LGEM and HWRF guidance through 48 hours, and 
is close to the Decay-SHIPS model after that time interval.  Gradual
weakening is likely in 3-5 days due to cooler SSTs and lower
humidities.
 
Bonnie moved just a bit north of the previous track, but appears to
still be on a west-northwestward heading or about 290/15 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to be
mostly maintained over the next several days.  This should result in
a continued west-northwestward or westward motion through the
forecast period.  The official track forecast follows the
multi-model consensus and keeps the hurricane moving parallel to and
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
 
The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 13.2N  95.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.7N  97.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 15.4N 103.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 16.4N 110.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 17.1N 114.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 18.5N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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