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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images
show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of
lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave
data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established,
with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest
Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data.
The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly
shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or
so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist
air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen
through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the
SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring
within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly
shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the
system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and
perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short
term, but is otherwise unchanged.
Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in
good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various
consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for
Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there
should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the
track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this
coastline.
The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and
southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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