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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 22...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
This evening's conventional satellite presentation consists of an
impressive deep convective curved band with -83C cloud tops
encompassing the west side of the cyclone. Earlier SSM/S and AMSR2
microwave passes revealed inner core ring development that was about
60 percent closed in the northern quadrants. There appears to be a
slight vertical tilt toward the west, more than likely due to the
period it spent moving across Nicaragua. The initial intensity is
raised to 50 kt and is based on a compromise of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
The shear is low, the water is warm, and the atmosphere is moist,
all contributing to further strengthening during the next few days,
and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in 24 hours. Around
mid-period, the global models and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity
guidance show modest northeasterly shear impinging on Bonnie's
outflow pattern. As a result, the official intensity forecast
calls for a slight weakening beyond day 3.
Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be due west or 270/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching from the northern Gulf of
Mexico to the Baja California peninsula should cause the cyclone to
turn west-northwestward Sunday and continue in this heading through
the remainder of the forecast period. The global and regional
model track guidance remains in agreement, and these tightly
clustered aids, as well as the NHC forecast, takes Bonnie
approximately parallel to the coasts and keeps the
tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the southern coast of
Central America and Mexico. However, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor
Bonnie's forecast track for the next few days as a slight northward
adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for
portions of this coastline.
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the southern portion of El Salvador
through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
2. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any
northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.6N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 12.4N 94.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 15.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.3N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH