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TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022
1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  89.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  89.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  89.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N  89.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N  89.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N  90.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.2N  90.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N  92.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N  94.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N  98.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  89.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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