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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022
 
Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this 
evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level 
eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the 
cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center 
have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud 
pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial 
intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON 
estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications 
from SAB and TAFB.
 
Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is 
steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North 
Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 
several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still 
tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very 
close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
 
Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to 
weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and 
into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite 
imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized 
convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the 
cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will 
continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C 
waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a 
trough and dissipate.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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