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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
 
The storm continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern on 
satellite imagery, with a low-level eye-like feature and well 
defined spiral cloud lines.  However, the associated convection is 
not very deep and most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms are 
confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation.  A 
scatterometer pass missed most of the system but did show that 
tropical-storm-force winds extended out about 90 n mi over the 
eastern semicircle.  The intensity is held at 45 kt for this 
advisory, in accord with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.

Celia has continued to move west-northwestward, or 290/6 kt, but is 
just slightly north of the previous track.  A mid-level high 
pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain 
this direction of motion, with a little acceleration, for the next 
few days.  The official track forecast follows the corrected 
dynamical model consensus, HCCA, very closely.

The cyclone is crossing the gradient of SST and moving over 
progressively cooler waters.  This, along with a drier and more 
stable air mass should cause Celia to degenerate into a remnant low 
pressure system within a couple of days.  The official intensity 
forecast is at or above the model consensus.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 20.1N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.9N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 22.6N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 23.7N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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