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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in
Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the
deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave
revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the
low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is
conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.
Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and
dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface
temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the
week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical
and dynamical intensity guidance.
Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory
motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A
mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific
should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course
through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on
the various tightly clustered consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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