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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
 
Celia passed just south of Socorro Island this afternoon. Microwave 
data and conventional satellite imagery indicate the inner-core 
convection has become fragmented into small bands around the 
low-level center. The deepest convection associated with the storm 
is occurring in bands over 200 n mi east and southeast of the main 
circulation. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and 
TAFB supports an initial intensity of 50 kt, which could still be 
generous based on the latest objective intensity aids and wind 
observations from Socorro Island. Unfortunately, no recent ASCAT 
data was available for Celia. 
 
The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. The 
track forecast reasoning has not changed, as a mid-level ridge to 
the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving to the 
west-northwest for the next several days. As Celia becomes a weaker 
and shallower system, it is forecast to turn westward and accelerate 
a bit within the low-level flow by days 4-5. The track guidance 
remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is 
essentially an update of the previous one with no major changes.

Celia is now centered north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and the latest 
track forecast brings the system into an increasingly unfavorable 
thermodynamic environment through early next week. Therefore, 
gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is 
likely to lose its organized deep convection and become a 
post-tropical low by Tuesday. Then, the remnant low is expected to 
spin down over cooler waters within a drier, more stable 
environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement 
with the previous advisory and the various intensity consensus aids, 
including IVCN and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 18.6N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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