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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Celia passed just south of Socorro Island this afternoon. Microwave
data and conventional satellite imagery indicate the inner-core
convection has become fragmented into small bands around the
low-level center. The deepest convection associated with the storm
is occurring in bands over 200 n mi east and southeast of the main
circulation. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB supports an initial intensity of 50 kt, which could still be
generous based on the latest objective intensity aids and wind
observations from Socorro Island. Unfortunately, no recent ASCAT
data was available for Celia.
The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed, as a mid-level ridge to
the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving to the
west-northwest for the next several days. As Celia becomes a weaker
and shallower system, it is forecast to turn westward and accelerate
a bit within the low-level flow by days 4-5. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one with no major changes.
Celia is now centered north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and the latest
track forecast brings the system into an increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic environment through early next week. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is
likely to lose its organized deep convection and become a
post-tropical low by Tuesday. Then, the remnant low is expected to
spin down over cooler waters within a drier, more stable
environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous advisory and the various intensity consensus aids,
including IVCN and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 18.6N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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