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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
 
Celia's convective organization is slightly better this morning,
with a broken ring of cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery.  
However, a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the near-core 
convection is limited to the southwest of the center.  The storm has 
extensive convective banding within the eastern and southeastern 
parts of the circulation.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 
3.5 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.
 
Celia took a temporary turn toward the northwest overnight, but the
motion appears to have settled out to west-northwestward, or 300/6
kt.  Mid-level ridging to the north is expected to keep Celia on a
west-northwestward motion for the next 4 days or so, with a gradual
increase in forward speed.  As a weaker, shallower system, the
remnant low should turn westward by day 5.  The GFS is a little
slower than the other models, but otherwise the model guidance is
tightly packed.  Therefore, no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast.
 
Even though deep-layer shear is now low, the thermodynamic
environment has kept the storm from strengthening over the past day
or so.  Celia's center is now over 26 degrees Celsius water and
heading toward even colder waters, and therefore gradual weakening
is anticipated during the next few days.  Celia is likely to cease
producing organized deep convection and thus become a post-tropical
low by day 3.  The updated intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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