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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
The convective organization of Celia has not improved over the
past several hours. While banding features are still present,
cloud top temperatures near the center are warming. Given
the mixed satellite signals, the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt and this could be generous.
Celia is now encountering more marginal sea surface temperatures
(SSTs), slightly below 26 C. It appears the system has run
out of time for further intensification. While the shear remains
low, the atmosphere is gradually becoming more stable and dry.
This should result in Celia weakening and later this weekend,
losing convection in 2 or 3 days. The official intensity
forecast is reduced from the previous one, on the lower end of the
guidance since Celia has been under-performing.
The system is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual increase
in forward speed as the storm is steered by a building mid-level
ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope and only minimal changes have been made from the previous
track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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