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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
 
Core convection, while waning somewhat over Celia this evening, 
remains fairly well-organized, with obvious banding features 
wrapping around the western semi-circle of the tropical cyclone. 
Several microwave passes, including a GPM pass at 0042 UTC also 
depict this organization, with an attempt at a banding-type 
eye feature open to the southeast. The latest round of satellite 
estimates are mostly unchanged from earlier today, but given the 
previous lackluster scatterometer data, the initial intensity has 
been held at 55 kt this advisory.
 
Celia continues to move to the west-northwest with a current motion 
at 300/6 kt. The forward motion of the cyclone is expected to 
gradually increase by early next week as northward mid-level ridging 
strengthens and expands westward. Once again there are few changes 
to the track forecast from the prior cycle, and the latest NHC 
forecast is just a hint faster, blending the reliable consensus aids 
TVCE and HCCA.
 
Per the latest SHIPS guidance, Celia is now over sub 26 C 
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). These SSTs are expected to remain 
between 25-26 C over the next 36 hours as Celia passes over the cold 
wake of Blas, which moved over this general location a week ago. 
While vertical wind shear is expected to remain low (below 10 kt) 
with sufficently high mid-level moisture, Celia's radial wind-field 
has become diffuse on its eastern side, without a distinct radius of 
maximum wind. This structural change is partially related to the 
ongoing convection well away from Celia's core to the southeast, 
associated with monsoonal flow over warmer SSTs. The GFS and SHIPS 
guidance still insist on Celia becoming a hurricane, while the most 
recent HWRF/HMON runs (which are atmosphere-ocean coupled) indicate 
weakening. A compromise of these two possibilities is to indicate 
only slight additional strengthening for Celia over the next 12-24 
hours, with gradual weakening beginning thereafter. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast lies between IVCN and HCCA guidance and no longer 
makes Celia a hurricane. As the storm moves over increasing cool 
SSTs, it is expected to gradually lose its convection, becoming a 
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This status could 
occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the ECMWF model. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 17.8N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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