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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
 
Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized.  Deep-layer 
shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone 
still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry 
air that got into the circulation.  Subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore 
Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory.

Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the 
south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern 
United States and northern Mexico.  The ridge is not particularly 
strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow 
down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours.  After 24 
hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward, 
causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5.  The guidance 
envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is 
unchanged from the 09z forecast.

Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear 
is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast 
period.  However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be 
sea surface temperatures.  Celia still has an opportunity to 
strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24 
hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near 
Socorro Island.  Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over 
colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and 
become post-tropical by day 4.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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