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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Satellite imagery indicates that Celia is on a gradual
strengthening trend, with an area of convection near and east of
the center. The latest microwave data, a 0200 UTC F-17 pass, showed
a small inner core in the 91-GHz channel. The subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 45 and 55 kt, and
the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.
Wind shear over the storm is slowly decreasing, and Celia has a
short window in the next day or so where environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening. Beyond
about 48 h, the system is expected to be over increasingly cooler
waters and encountering a drier airmass. These factors will
cause Celia to begin weakening and eventually transition to a
remnant by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the overall model consensus and is quite similar
to the previous advisory.
Celia continues its west-northwestward trek at about 7 kt around a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This
motion is expected to slightly slow over the next couple days
before increasing in speed at the end of the forecast period as
the ridge builds to its north. The NHC track forecast is a bit
faster than the previous advisory and lies close to track model
consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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