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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear
which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has
lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have
ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling
to produce much convection near its center. That said, new
convection has recently been developing just to the east of the
center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at
the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get
some scatterometer data later today.
The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but
there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest.
There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with
mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to
drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A
westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by
lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there
is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer
a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track
forecast is therefore higher than it had been.
The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the
core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near
the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen,
with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees
or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC
forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters
being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to
become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder
waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become
post-tropical by day 5.
The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded
significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data
from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Berg
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