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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
The organization of Celia has not changed significantly based
on satellite imagery since the last advisory. A couple of recent
scatterometer passes showed an elongated low-level circulation on
the northeastern edge of a convective burst, likely due to the
effects of the moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak intensity
estimates range between 35 and 45 kt, and with no increase in the
organization of the cloud pattern in the past several hours, the
initial intensity estimate remains 40 kt. Data from the
scatterometer overpasses suggest that this may be a generous
intensity estimate, however.
Celia continues to move west-northwestward at 295/11 kt along the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
United States. This ridge is expected to continue to steer the
tropical cyclone west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in
forward speed through the forecast period. The track forecast
models have come into better agreement, however there are still
some discrepancies over the speed at which Celia will move during
the next several days. The official track forecast is in very good
agreement with the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the
dynamical model consensus.
Based on the dynamical guidance, the moderate shear over the
tropical storm is expected to persist today before decreasing this
evening. Since other environmental factors are already conducive
for intensification, Celia is expected strengthen to a hurricane
within the next 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is near
or above the intensity model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 13.4N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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