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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Satellite imagery shows little change in the organization of Celia 
since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the 
northeastern edge of the main area of convective bursts.  This is 
due to the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly shear.  Various 
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 
35-45 kt range and have changed little over the past several hours. 
The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia continues to moves west-northwestward with a slower forward 
speed, and the initial motion is now 295/11.  A subtropical ridge 
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to 
keep Celia on a general west-northwestward trajectory for the next 
5 days, with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through 
Friday.  While the track forecast models are in general agreement 
with this scenario, the guidance is somewhat loosely clustered due 
to some cross-track spread.  The new forecast track is a little to 
the north of the previous forecast during the first 72 h, and then 
is similar to the previous forecast.

The large-scale models indicate the current shear is likely to 
persist for another 24 h or so, and based on this slow 
strengthening is forecast during the first part of the intensity 
forecast.  From 24-60 h, the shear should diminish while Celia is 
still over warm sea surface temperatures, and this should allow 
for a faster rate of strengthening and for Celia to become a 
hurricane.  After 60 h, the cyclone should moved over colder sea 
surface temperatures, and the new intensity forecast calls for a 
little faster weakening than the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 13.0N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.5N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 15.1N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 15.9N 107.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 16.5N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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