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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
 
Deep convection has been increasing, but it remains confined to the
west of the center of Celia due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear. Even though the cyclone is still asymmetric, it does appear
a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is
nudged up to 35 kt based on that data. This makes Celia a tropical
storm once again.
 
Celia is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 10 kt, 
and it is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge that is 
centered over the south-central U.S. A turn to the west-northwest is 
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next 
several days as the storm moves within the flow on the southwest 
side of the ridge. Despite the fairly straightforward steering 
pattern, there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance with 
the HWRF and UKMET models on the southern edge and the ECMWF model 
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various 
consensus aids.
 
Celia will likely strengthen at a slow pace during the next couple 
of days as the system remains in moderate to strong shear 
conditions. The overall environment looks best for Celia late this 
week and early this weekend, when the shear is expected to decrease 
and while SSTs beneath the system remain warm, and it will likely 
become a hurricane during that time. However, later in the weekend, 
the storm is expected to move over sub 26 C waters, which should end 
the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC 
intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during the 
next 36-48 hours, but falls near the middle of the envelope beyond 
that.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 11.6N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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