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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Celia has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Strong northeasterly shear has been affecting the
depression, with the center of the cyclone near the sharp
northeastern edge of a rather shapeless area of very strong
convection. The system lacks well-defined banding features at this
time, and Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.
Based on the SHIPS model output, Celia should continue to be in an
environment of moderate, but significant, vertical shear for
the next day or two followed by a notable decrease of shear
in 48 hours. The official intensity forecast calls for only slow
strengthening in the early part of the period followed by a
slightly faster rate of intensification for a while thereafter. In
3-5 days, however, cooler SSTs should limit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus
for the earlier part of the period and a little above it later
on. This is about the same as in the previous NHC forecast.
Celia has been moving slightly south of west, or about 265/11 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from a high
centered near the southern U.S. Plains should remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Celia
should move on a generally west-northwestward track on the
southwest side of the ridge for most of the forecast period.
Although the steering pattern seems relatively straightforward,
there are noticeable differences in the track forecasts from some
of the more reliable models. As noted earlier, this could partially
be due to differences in the cyclone vortex depths in these models.
The official track forecast is only slightly south of the previous
one, and follows the corrected multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 11.6N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH