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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
The depression has become better organized based on geostationary
and microwave satellite imagery. The center is embedded in the
eastern side of a growing area of deep convection. However,
subjective satellite estimates still support an intensity at 30 kt
and therefore, the initial intensity is set to that value.
Despite moderate east-northeasterly shear, the depression is
expected to gradually re-strengthen in the next day or so. Celia
will likely continue to intensify in the following few days, in part
due to the cyclone moving over warm waters in a low-or-moderate
shear environment. At the end of the forecast period,
intensification will likely halt as the storm encounters cooler
waters. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous one and represents a compromise between the higher
dynamical hurricane models and lower global model intensities.
Celia continues westward (270/11 kt) due to the steering flow of a
mid-level ridge to its north, and this motion should persist for
another day or so. The system is expected to turn west-northwest
and eventually northwestward as it rounds the southwest side of the
ridge. There is a fair bit of model disagreement this cycle in both
cross-track and along-track storm positions. This is possibly due
to a wide variety of forecast model tropical cyclone vortex depths
which experience very different environmental steering flows. The
NHC track forecast lies to the north of the consensus aids, a little
closer to the global models, and is slightly faster than the
previous forecast. The large spread in model guidance makes this
track forecast more uncertain than average.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 11.9N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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