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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
There have been a few small bursts of deep convection near the
estimated center of Celia, but easterly shear continues to prevent
significant organization of the thunderstorm activity. The current
intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in accordance with a Dvorak
estimate from SAB. Unfortunately a recent scatterometer pass,
which could have given additional information on the strength
of the system, missed the circulation of the cyclone.
The global models indicate that the persistent easterly shear over
Celia, associated with an upper-level anticyclone over southeastern
Mexico, should gradually diminish as the tropical cyclone moves
farther west. This should allow for some strengthening to commence
within the next day or so. The official forecast shows gradual
intensification beginning at 24 hours and is in good agreement with
the intensity model consensus, IVCN, for the 5-day forecast period.
Celia's center slipped a little south of the previous track but the
best estimate of initial motion is west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt.
A large zonally-oriented subtropical ridge is expected to prevail
to the north of Celia for the next several days. This should
induce a westward and then west-northwestward track over the
period. The official track forecast is similar to the model
consensus and not far from the previous NHC prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 11.9N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 11.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 11.8N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 12.1N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 12.6N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.9N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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