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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Celia is still struggling in a sheared environment. Some bursts of
convection continue to pulse near the center of the weak depression,
which remains exposed due to easterly shear. The initial
intensity remains at 25 kt, mainly because there have been no new
data to suggest otherwise.
The initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt. The ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause the tropical
depression to continue west-southwestward for the next day or so.
Celia is then expected to be steered around the southwestern and
western edge of a ridge centered over the southeast United States
which should turn the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest beyond
the 36 h forecast. The model track guidance is tightly clustered,
and the new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one with a
shift to the west at the end of the prediction period.
The depression is being affected by strong upper-level winds, which
are resulting in about 20 kt of shear. This shear is forecast to
slowly abate in the next day or so which will possibly allow for
some strengthening of Celia by the middle of the week. Celia could
even become a hurricane by the end of the forecast period as the
vertical wind shear decreases and other environmental factors remain
favorable. The official forecast is close to the previous advisory
and on the lower end of the model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 12.2N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.9N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 11.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 15.4N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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