ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Similar to yesterday, a widespread area of deep convection has formed along and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely in association with an ongoing gap wind event. There has also been a few more clusters of deep convection developing just west of Celia's estimated low-level center. Despite this activity, none of it is especially well-organized and remains primarily down-shear of Celia's vortex. However, it is enough coverage for now to keep Celia as a classifiable tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt this advisory, favoring the lower SAB Dvorak classification given the lackluster winds found with overnight scatterometer and a ship report near the center. Celia's motion continues off to the west, estimated at 265/7 kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement that a west-southwest motion will continue for the next 36 h as Celia is steered by a deep-level ridge to the north supplemented by low-level northerly flow from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, a turn to the west and west-northwest is anticipated as Celia becomes positioned on the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly south again from the prior one following a southward adjustment in the latest consensus aids (HCCA, TVCE). Moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the next 24-36 hours still appears likely to keep Celia in check, and the system is forecast to remain a depression during that time. Afterwards, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should gradual subside as the system moves over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The majority of the intensity guidance responds to this environment by showing intensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged upward just a bit after 36 hours. This forecast is a blend between the lower HCCA and higher IVCN consensus aids, and is quite close to the most recent COAMPS-TC (CTCI) forecast in 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 12.8N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:49 UTC