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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
 
Similar to yesterday, a widespread area of deep convection has 
formed along and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely in 
association with an ongoing gap wind event. There has also been a 
few more clusters of deep convection developing just west of Celia's 
estimated low-level center. Despite this activity, none of it is 
especially well-organized and remains primarily down-shear of 
Celia's vortex. However, it is enough coverage for now to keep Celia 
as a classifiable tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 
kt this advisory, favoring the lower SAB Dvorak classification given 
the lackluster winds found with overnight scatterometer and a ship 
report near the center.
 
Celia's motion continues off to the west, estimated at 265/7 kt. The 
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that a west-southwest 
motion will continue for the next 36 h as Celia is steered by a 
deep-level ridge to the north supplemented by low-level northerly 
flow from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, a 
turn to the west and west-northwest is anticipated as Celia becomes 
positioned on the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. The NHC 
track forecast was nudged slightly south again from the prior one 
following a southward adjustment in the latest consensus aids (HCCA, 
TVCE).
 
Moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the 
next 24-36 hours still appears likely to keep Celia in check, and 
the system is forecast to remain a depression during that time. 
Afterwards, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates 
this shear should gradual subside as the system moves over 28-29 C 
sea-surface temperatures. The majority of the intensity guidance 
responds to this environment by showing intensification, and the 
latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged upward just a bit after 36 
hours. This forecast is a blend between the lower HCCA and higher 
IVCN consensus aids, and is quite close to the most recent COAMPS-TC 
(CTCI) forecast in 120 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 12.8N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 12.4N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 11.8N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 11.7N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 12.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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