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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Celia is a very weak tropical cyclone. Although some sporadic deep
convection has redeveloped within its small circulation, this
activity is not well organized near the center and continues to be
displaced westward by strong shear. The intensity estimate remains
at 25 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
however a scatterometer pass over the system and a nearby ship
report from a few hours ago suggests that this may be a generous
estimate.
The cyclone has begun to move a little faster toward the west and
the initial motion estimate is 270/6 kt. A faster motion toward the
west-southwest is anticipated for the next 48 hours or so while a
mid-level ridge builds to the north. Later in the forecast period,
Celia should turn to the west and west-northwest on the southwest
side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is only slightly south of
the previous one and close to the solution of the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA.
Dynamical guidance indicates that strong easterly shear, associated
with an upper-level high near southeastern Mexico, should continue
to prevail over Celia for the next couple of days and prevent
intensification. Later in the forecast period, it is anticipated
that the shear will abate somewhat and allow the system to
strengthen. The official intensity forecast follows this reasoning
and is close to the latest LGEM guidance. It should be noted,
however, that the hostile dynamical environment in the short term
could cause Celia to at least temporarily lose its status as a
tropical cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 13.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 12.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 12.2N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 11.8N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 11.9N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 12.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 13.0N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 14.2N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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