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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Celia is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds
with the nearest convection about 60 n mi west-northwest of the
center. Various satellite intensity estimates are between 30-45
kt, but there was no scatterometer data to help show the actual
intensity of the system. Given the uncertainty, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt.
The cyclone is now moving a little faster toward the northwest with
an initial motion of 325/4. A building mid- to upper-level ridge
to the north of Celia should cause a turn to the west or west-
southwest during the next 12-24 h, and a general westward motion
at a faster forward speed is likely to continue through the
remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track lies near
the various consensus models and is changed little from the
previous forecast.
Celia is in an area of strong easterly vertical wind shear, and the
dynamical models forecast the shear to persist for at least the
next 48-72 h. This is likely to prevent intensification during
this time, and it is possible that the cyclone could degenerate to
a remnant low during the next day or two. After that time, the
shear is forecast to gradually diminish, and this should allow the
system to slowly intensify. The new intensity forecast has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts are decreasing.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 12.6N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 12.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 12.2N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 11.9N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 12.0N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 12.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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