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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The satellite presentation of Celia has degraded significantly this 
evening, with all deep convection displaced far to the northwest of 
the exposed low-level circulation.  Subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates are at 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  
Objective Dvorak estimates are trending downward and are currently 
at 31 kt.  The initial intensity has been decreased to 30 kt in 
favor of the lower estimates.

Celia remains in light and variable steering flow and continues to 
drift northward with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. As a mid-level 
ridge builds in from the north in the next day or so, the system is 
expected to turn to the west or west-southwest and accelerate.  The 
NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory with some 
decrease in forward speed at days 4 and 5 in agreement with 
consensus guidance.

Easterly shear has increased over Celia this evening and is expected 
to remain high over the next couple of days.  This will limit the 
future potential for Celia to intensify in the short-term forecast 
and further weakening is even possible.  Should the tropical cyclone 
survive the relatively hostile environment forecast over the next 
several days, shear is expected to decrease and therefore, 
intensification could resume by early next week. The latest 
intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous advisory. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
 
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, 
although the chances of direct wind impacts are decreasing.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 12.0N  89.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 12.3N  89.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 12.3N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 12.0N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 11.7N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 11.6N  94.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 11.9N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 12.8N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 13.9N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
 
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