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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
 
Overall the satellite presentation of Celia is a bit less
impressive this afternoon, with the deepest convective cloud tops
starting to become increasingly displaced from the low-level
circulation center, which is now partially exposed to the east
of the convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates for 1800
UTC were unchanged from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T4.0/45 kt) from
this morning, though objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON have decreased some this
afternoon. Unfortunately this afternoon's scatterometer swaths
missed Celia's small wind field. The initial intensity will
remain 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The northward drift with Celia continues, with the latest motion
estimated at 360/3 kt. As mentioned over the past day, Celia
remains under light and variable steering flow on the south side of
a broader monsoonal circulation parked over Central America. This
broad low-level circulation should gradually break down as a
pronounced mid-level ridge centered over the southern US amplifies
and extends westward over Mexico. This changing synoptic pattern
should result in Celia turning westward or even west-southwestward 
as it also gradually accelerates over the next 2-3 days. While there
remains larger-than-average spread in the track guidance this
afternoon, especially in the across-track direction, this general
evolution is favored. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch
further south and faster compared to the previous advisory, and now
lies pretty near the HCCA consensus aid.
 
Celia's intensity may have already peaked earlier this morning, as 
easterly vertical wind shear now appears to be displacing the 
convection further west which is decreasing in overall intensity as 
cloud tops warm. SHIPS guidance suggests the current shear will only 
increase further over the next 24 hours, and Celia is no longer 
expected to intensify further in the short-term. Assuming the 
tropical cyclone survives the relatively hostile environment 
forecast over the next several days, shear is expected to decrease 
towards the end of the forecast period as it moves towards warmer 
ocean waters (28-29 C). Therefore, intensification could resume by 
early next week. The latest intensity forecast is a bit lower than 
this morning, but still remains above most of the guidance over the 
next 48 hours. Thereafter, some gradual intensification is shown, 
roughly splitting the difference between the HCCA and IVCN 
consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
 
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 11.8N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 12.1N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 12.3N  89.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 12.2N  90.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 11.8N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 11.5N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 11.6N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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