ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that there has not been much change in the organization of Tropical Depression Three-E since the last advisory, with the system maintaining a small cluster of convection near and south of the center. However, scatterometer data and a GMI microwave overpass showed that the center was a bit to the east of the previous advisory position. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, while the scatterometer data showed winds of 25-30 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4. The depression is currently in an area of weak steering currents associated with a large low-level cyclonic gyre over Central America. This should allow a slow northward motion to continue for the next 12-24 h. After that, a building mid- to upper-level ridge north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west, with a general westward motion continuing through the forecast period. The new forecast track has some adjustments from the previous track in the first 24-36 h based on the more easterly initial position. By the end of the forecast period, though, it is similar to the previous track. The new track is north of the consensus models from 36-72 h, and this part of the forecast may need some southward adjustment in subsequent advisories. Conditions appear favorable for the cyclone to strengthen during the next 12-24 h, and the intensity forecast calls for it to become a tropical storm during this time. After that, the global models are in good agreement that moderate to strong easterly shear is going to develop over the system. The intensity guidance shows some spread, with some models showing little or no strengthening from 24-120 h while others forecast gradual strengthening. Since the cyclone will be moving over increasing sea surface temperatures in a moist environment with strong upper-level divergence, the intensity forecast calls for some gradual strengthening in spite of the shear from 24-120 h. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. While the cyclone is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of the current forecast track, or a system that gets larger than forecast, would require a tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area. Heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America regardless of how close the forecast tropical-storm force winds get to the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.3N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 11.8N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 12.4N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 12.5N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 12.4N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 12.2N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 12.5N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 13.5N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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