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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Deep convection has been withering away from the circulation of Blas
this afternoon, and only a few broken convective bands remain to the
north and northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from
34 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, near the
low end of the satellite estimates, given the degraded appearance of
the storm this afternoon. Blas is already over cool waters, and
even cooler waters along its future track plus dry and stable air
should cause the system to further decay. The NHC forecast
shows Blas becoming a remnant low in 24 hours, but this could occur
sooner if the current trends continue. The system is forecast to
completely dissipate in a few days.
The storm has been moving very slowly and erratically throughout
the day. It is unclear if the center has also reformed a little to
the east this afternoon. Regardless, the overall motion has been a
northwestward drift. A slow west to west-northwest motion within
the low-level flow is expected to resume soon and continue until
dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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