ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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