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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during
the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep
convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak
classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based
on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is
already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass.
These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will
likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even
slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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