ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
 
Blas continues to spin down. Satellite images show that the
center remains partially exposed and deep convection is still
limited to the southeastern quadrant. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of around 40 kt, but it did not catch the southeast
side of the system.  Based on that pass and the latest Dvorak
estimates that range from 35-55 kt, the initial intensity is nudged
down again to 45 kt. An observation on Socorro Island, Mexico,
reported sustained winds of tropical-storm-force earlier today, and
gusts to that threshold are still ongoing.
 
The tropical storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 5 kt. A
continued slow westward to northwestward motion within the low- to
mid-level flow is expected to continue until the system dissipates
in 3 to 4 days. The models have trended southward this cycle, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
 
Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly even
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the
previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 18.4N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.7N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 18.8N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 18.7N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 18.7N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 18.9N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN