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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
 
Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning.
Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center
with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the
intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory.
 
The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4
kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within
the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the
middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be
positioned closer to the various consensus aids.
 
Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm 
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an 
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These 
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely 
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the 
majority of the guidance.
 
Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip 
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern 
part of the Baja California peninsula.  These conditions should 
subside tonight.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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