ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning.
Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center
with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the
intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4
kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within
the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the
middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be
positioned closer to the various consensus aids.
Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the
majority of the guidance.
Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN