ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Geostationary satellite imagery suggests that the low-level center
of Blas has become more aligned with the mid-level center and
closer to the center of the central dense overcast during the last
6 hours. Despite this improvement, the convection is a little
shallower in the western semicircle of the hurricane than it was
this morning. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90
kt and 77 kt, respectively. The latest CIMSS-ADT estimate is 60 kt.
Taking a blend of the data, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this
advisory.
Moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue over Blas
through the next 36 hours. Blas has another 18 hours or so over
warm water before it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Little
change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning, while
the cyclone remains over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening
should begin in about 24 hours, and is anticipated to continue
during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low around day 3. The NHC intensity
prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and HFIP
corrected consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 285/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-60 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly
clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the
consensus models. The new NHC track forecast is once again faster
than the previous advisory.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 16.2N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
NNNN