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Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
A GMI microwave overpass received just after the last advisory
showed decay of the inner core structure of Blas, with the central
deep convection occurring only in the southern semicircle. In
addition, the cloud pattern in infrared imagery now looks more like
a shear pattern than a central dense overcast. These changes are
likely due to the effects of 15-25 kt of easterly shear currently
analyzed over the cyclone. Despite the convective decay, the
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus are unchanged since the last advisory. Thus, the initial
intensity remains a possibly generous 75 kt.
Little change in strength is likely during the next 6-12 h due to
the shear. The shear should diminish some between 12-24 h and
allow Blas to strengthen a little more. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which
should cause a gradual weakening for the remainder of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous
advisory.
The microwave imagery indicated that the center was a little to the
north of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is
a somewhat uncertain 300/5. Blas should be steered west-
northwestward with some increase in forward speed by the flow on the
south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge. As the cyclone weakens
later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn west-
southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The new
forecast track is a little to the north of, and faster than, the
previous forecast track, and it lies near the various consensus
models.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.2N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.0N 107.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 18.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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