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Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is getting better organized,
with the center now embedded in a circular central dense overcast
that is mostly surrounded by outer convective bands. Subjective
and objective Dvorak technique intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS are all 55 kt, so that will be the initial intensity for
this advisory.
Blas is starting its anticipated left turn and the initial motion
is now 330/5. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during
the next 24 h as Blas moves along the south side of a mid- to
upper-level ridge extending westward from central Mexico and this
general motion should continue with some increase in forward
speed for the next several days. The new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous track, and it lies in the
middle of the track guidance envelope.
Blas has at least another 24 h of favorable conditions in which to
intensify, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane later
today. In about 24 hours, the storm is forecast to experience
increasing northeasterly shear, and it should move over cooler
water between 48-60 h. Based on these factors, and on the
intensity guidance, Blas is expected to peak in intensity in about
36 h, followed by a slow weakening through the rest of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, with the 80-kt peak intensity near the upper edge of the
guidance envelope.
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico starting later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.3N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.4N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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