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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become
a tropical depression. Deep convection started to consolidate near
the center around 00Z, and it has increased and expanded since then.
In addition, the circulation appears better defined and
sufficiently meets the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is a little lower than the
latest Dvorak estimates.
The depression is currently located a couple of hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and it is drifting
north-northwestward at 3 kt. This slow and likely erratic motion is
expected to continue for another 24 hours as the steering currents
remain weak, and the system is expected to remain close to, but
offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time.
After that, however, a turn to the west-northwest with an increase
in forward speed is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. This motion should take the system gradually
away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Although there is
some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward
speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.
The depression appears to be strengthening now, and this
intensification trend will likely continue for about 36 hours as
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of low to
moderate shear and high moisture. After that time, however, the
intensification rate is expected to slow due to an increase in
easterly shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated to commence
around day 3 when the system moves into strong shear and heads
toward progressively cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast
lies at the high end of the models in the short term, but falls
near the middle of the guidance envelope between 48 and 120 h.
Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 13.6N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.9N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 14.6N 103.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.1N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.5N 105.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 17.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH